Global GDP growth appears steady, but container shipping faces a looming volume squeeze as trade slows and tech exports dominate.
In issue 750 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, the latest IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) was examined.
While headline figures suggest a “steady” global economy, with global GDP growth projected at 3.3 per cent for both 2025 and 2026, a closer look highlights key risks for container shipping.
World trade growth is forecast to slow from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 2.6 per cent in 2026.
This follows a 2025 “front-loading” effect, where shippers accelerated imports ahead of anticipated trade policy changes.
Slower trade growth in 2026 may struggle to absorb new vessel capacity, potentially pressuring freight rates.
READ: Global LNG demand set for growth in 2026
The projections are also heavily dependent on technology exports. Exports from Asia (excluding China) grew 13.2 per cent, with roughly 70 per cent tied to technology, while China’s growth was similarly tech-driven.
Because these exports are high in value but low in volume — and IMF forecasts measure value rather than TEU —actual cargo volumes may not match headline trade growth.
For shipping lines, the apparent stability masks weaker physical demand for volume-heavy goods.
Lines face a “double squeeze”: a post‑front-loading volume decline from 2025, combined with structurally higher US tariffs, now averaging around 18.5 per cent.
Under these conditions, headline GDP growth may not translate into the cargo demand needed to offset rising costs.
In December 2025, global container schedule reliability fell to its second-lowest level, highlighting persistent operational volatility across trade lanes and carriers.
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