The tides of maritime trade are now steered less by nature and more by geopolitics. From trade wars and naval confrontations to rising threats against critical sea lanes and infrastructure, shipping has become deeply enmeshed in global power struggles. Strategic waterways are no longer just commercial routes, they’re contested zones in a wider geopolitical chessboard.
Against this backdrop, we explore the geopolitical forces reshaping the sea and the shipping industry, examining how ports, operators, and regulators are adapting to a world where political agendas increasingly chart the course of global trade.
A trade war rekindled: tariffs, delay, and divergence
Perhaps the most immediate disruption in 2025 has been the renewed escalation of US–China trade tensions. The imposition of US tariffs earlier this year, including a 10 per cent duty on $300 billion of Chinese goods, has intensified global trade tensions, creating immediate disruptions across maritime supply chains. The sharp increase in tariffs, coupled with retaliatory measures, led to rising operational costs and heightened uncertainty among shippers and carriers.
The impact on maritime flows was swift and sharp. US ports, particularly along the West Coast, reported dramatic cost increases and throughput uncertainty. The Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach, which together handle over 40 per cent of the nation’s containerised imports, voiced concerns over disrupted procurement cycles and operational bottlenecks.
While a 90-day suspension of certain tariffs was brokered during negotiations in London, its residual impact lingers. Freight rates experienced wild swings as market actors scrambled to interpret fluctuating signals from Washington and Beijing. A recent federal court ruling found that aspects of the original Trump-era tariffs exceeded executive authority, injecting further uncertainty into the policy’s long-term legitimacy and thus, enforceability.
Caught in the crossfire are shippers, carriers, and logistics firms. Retailers warn of rising consumer prices while insurers flag heightened liability exposure. Supply chains are reconfiguring under pressure, all while the spectre of prolonged economic decoupling grows. This decoupling is marked by the gradual reorganisation of trade relationships, technological exchange, and industrial supply chains between major economies such as the US and China, driven by policy shifts, security concerns, and strategic realignment.
Red Sea on alert: chokepoints under siege
One of the starkest illustrations of maritime vulnerability has been the ongoing Red Sea crisis. Since the beginning of the year, persistent Houthi attacks and retaliatory airstrikes have rendered parts of the corridor hazardous and unpredictable. All but recent strikes on Yemeni ports and vessels have triggered mass rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding as much as 12 days to certain transit times.
The consequences have been severe: freight rates have surged, volumes through the Suez have dropped by an estimated 60 per cent, and war risk premiums continue to climb. While some operators have resumed limited transits with naval escorts, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has called for restraint. In a recent statement, the IMO Secretary-General urged diplomacy over escalation, noting that continued instability could fracture vital east-west trade corridors beyond repair.
For port authorities, vessel operators, and shipping companies, the priority is clear: stay prepared and secure the uncertain. The sea remains our oldest trade route, but in 2025, it became a battleground for influence as much as a conduit for goods.
Strait of Hormuz: pressure, jamming, and paralysis
Meanwhile, tensions between Iran and Israel have jeopardised the viability of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway responsible for roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil trade.
The threat of disruption has triggered widespread concern. In April, the US urged China to dissuade Iran from any potential closures of the strait, warning of global economic shockwaves should maritime flows be obstructed. While analysts maintain that a full closure remains unlikely, the cost of concern has already manifested economically.
Maritime insurers have responded by raising premiums, particularly for vessels transiting the Persian Gulf. Spot container rates on key lanes such as Asia–Europe and the Mediterranean have seen sharp volatility, and recent satellite data shows congestion building around alternative routes. Some shipping lines have begun rerouting high-value vessels or adjusting transit schedules to mitigate exposure.
Security risks are also evolving. Repeated GPS jamming incidents, attributed by analysts to regional actors, have affected hundreds of vessels, impairing navigation systems and prompting maritime authorities to issue safety alerts. June 2025 saw intensified jamming activity, fuelling concerns over electronic warfare capabilities in congested sea lanes, leaving vessels disoriented and at risk of collision or misidentification.
Despite repeated warnings from operators and maritime security firms, militarily leveraged technology continues to compromise navigation systems, affecting both commercial and naval traffic.
The Iran–Israel standoff has underscored the fragility of the Strait of Hormuz, not only as a conduit of trade but as a strategic litmus test of regional stability.
Ukraine and the Black Sea: enduring instability
More than two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea remains a highly unstable zone. Although EU sanctions have weakened the so-called “dark fleet” of Russian vessels that covertly transport crude oil and grain, they have not fully stopped these operations. The Port of Odesa, a vital hub for Ukraine’s agricultural exports, has endured renewed missile attacks, including two this spring that tragically killed three port workers.
The European Commission has proposed the establishment of a Black Sea Maritime Security Hub aimed at enhancing coordination of vessel tracking, intelligence sharing, and emergency response to counter ongoing Russian threats in the region. This initiative seeks to strengthen regional maritime security by centralising efforts across EU member states and partners. While the proposal marks a significant step toward safeguarding critical trade routes, implementation timelines remain uncertain amid complex geopolitical dynamics.
Maritime safety and cyber warfare: the invisible threats
Geopolitical conflict has been matched by a rise in non-traditional threats, most notably onboard fires and cyberattacks. The year began with a series of maritime fires, including on the Wan Hai 503, and a fatal North Sea accident that sparked international scrutiny over hazardous cargo classification and crew training standards.
Meanwhile, cyberattacks on port infrastructure have intensified. Marlink has reported a surge in AI-enhanced phishing schemes, ransomware deployments against terminal operating systems, and disruptions to GPS and navigation software. In response, the International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH) issued revised cyber resilience guidelines, though uptake remains arguably inconsistent.
These developments underscore a new reality: even in the absence of conflict, infrastructure sabotage, data breaches, and systemic risk are part of the maritime risk outlook.
Outlook: power, passage, and preparedness
As we look ahead to the second half of 2025, one thing is clear: geopolitics is no longer the backdrop to global shipping; it is the driver. From Houthi missile launches to presidential tariffs, the forces shaping maritime trade are now deeply political, unpredictable, and consequential.
The resilience of global supply chains now depends as much on political foresight as it does on technological innovation.
