Transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell 52 per cent week-on-week, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s latest Weekly Maritime Risk Briefing.
Outbound journeys were down 46 per cent, while inbound transits fell 61 per cent.
Vessels with no Iranian nexus continued to move through the strait, though volumes dropped to 22 transits last week, down from 30 the week prior, with 68 per cent of those ships exiting the Gulf. Seven laden VLCCs sailed out of the Gulf during the week, while inbound traffic remained dominated by tankers.
Non-Iranian vessels are said to be transiting almost exclusively “dark,” with one China-linked bulker tracked transiting with AIS switched on via the Iranian traffic system.
In the Red Sea, Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported no mass exodus of shipping, with disruption concentrated within the tanker market. Traceable transits fell 28 per cent week-on-week, with 225 transits recorded between 20-26 July, down from 311 the previous week, within the normal range, though toward the lower end.
Preliminary data showed 263 total transits over the same period, including 38 dark transits, though the briefing noted this figure is likely to be revised upward as more data becomes available.
READ: Shadow fleet dominates Strait of Hormuz transits in March
Traceable calls to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports have slowed sharply, with no arrivals captured via AIS on 28 July. Vessels departing Saudi ports have continued to transit the Bab-el-Mandeb strait despite a Houthi ban imposed on 20 July.
The container shipping market has so far shown resilience, with no material change in boxship movements and major carriers, including Maersk, yet to divert services.
On freight rates, Lloyd’s List Intelligence noted an initial spike driven by panic, with the timing of peaks varying by segment; rates have continued to see sporadic upward pressure from ongoing geopolitical developments.
The Black Sea-Mediterranean Suezmax index stood at $117,000 per day in mid-February, peaked at $275,000 per day on 3 March, then fell back and has held between $100,000 and $120,000 per day over the past four months, with a brief spike above $180,000 per day in mid-June coinciding with the US-Iran peace memorandum of understanding.
The briefing also flagged potential knock-on effects from continued Red Sea attacks: a shift of Yanbu crude flows toward the Egypt route, via the Suez Canal and/or the SuMed pipeline to Sidi Kerir, would require more VLCCs than the Bab-el-Mandeb route to Asia. Increased Yanbu exports to Europe could also boost demand for Suezmaxes, while freeing up additional US crude for export to Asia on VLCCs.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence cautioned it remains too early to draw broader conclusions on the scale of the disruption.
For more information:
Lloyd’s List Intelligence – https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/
