Global container trade has outperformed earlier expectations in 2025, with stronger-than-anticipated resilience on the demand side, according to new analysis by Maritime Strategies International (MSI).
The firm’s Q3 Market Report, Faltering Freight, notes that fears over tariff impacts have not materialised to the extent anticipated at the start of the year.
Much of the current trade strength is attributed to continued exports of surplus manufactured goods from China, particularly to emerging markets. MSI states this has “significantly buoyed trade so far this year.”
World container trade grew an estimated 4.9 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q1 2025 and 4.4 per cent in Q2.
The first half of the year saw robust performance in Mainlane trades, especially on Asia-Europe and Transatlantic routes.
Transpacific volumes have been more volatile but were still up nearly 6 per cent year-to-date (YTD) through August.
Q2 2025 saw a 4.9 per cent YoY increase in Mainlane headhaul volumes, following a 9.5 per cent rise in Q1.
MSI believes this is likely to mark the peak rate of expansion for these trades in the near term.
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Growth in long-distance non-Mainlane trades has also remained strong in the first half of 2025, continuing a multi-year trend.
However, MSI forecasts contraction in Mainlane headhaul trade in 2026, led by a slowdown in the Transpacific and weaker growth on the Asia-Europe route.
Despite revising 2026 projections slightly upward, reflecting assumed greater resilience to tariffs, MSI warns of downside risks.
Chinese export competitiveness remains a key driver in both Mainlane and non-Mainlane forecasts.
Trade data for the first seven months of 2025 show import growth from the Far East outpacing other regions across Latin America, the Middle East/Subcontinent, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania.
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This excludes intra-regional trade. MSI notes that while some of this is driven by exports from South-East Asia, China remains the dominant contributor.
MSI Director, Daniel Richards, said: “While exports from South-East Asia, as opposed to China, could account for a growing share of this surge in Far East exports, wider evidence from Chinese customs data does suggest that it is China’s export powerhouse that is having an outsized impact.
“Overall, MSI has made upward revisions to our forecast for key non-Mainlane trades in 2025, but otherwise our forecasts are stable and we expect a more muted pace of expansion in 2026.”
