In issue 756 of Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, Sea‑Intelligence highlighted Gemini’s declining capacity market share on the Transpacific and Asia–North Europe trade lanes.
The rolling eight‑week average shows a steady downward trend. Between April 2025 and May 2026, Gemini’s share of weekly deployed capacity fell from 15 per cent to 13 per cent on the Asia–North America West Coast, from 20 per cent to 17 per cent on the East Coast, and from 27 per cent to 23 per cent on Asia–North Europe.
Most of this contraction occurred between mid‑February and May 2026.
The decline, however, does not reflect a reduction in Gemini’s absolute capacity. Weekly TEU deployments remained largely flat.
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Instead, Gemini’s market share shrank because total market capacity expanded rapidly following the Chinese New Year slowdown, a surge driven by OCEAN Alliance, which operated near maximum design capacity with few blank sailings.
The divergence underscores two distinct operational strategies. OCEAN Alliance pairs capacity growth with high weekly volatility, flexing its network to capture surging demand.
Gemini, in contrast, maintains a low‑volatility, closed‑loop deployment. While this provides a stable weekly baseline, it limits Gemini’s responsiveness to sudden market expansions, resulting in a gradual loss of relative market share despite unchanged absolute capacity.
For more information:
Sea-Intelligence – https://www.sea-intelligence.com/
