Spot rates on key trade lanes out of the Far East rose sharply in mid-October and have largely held their ground over the past week, following a steady decline since mid-September.
The average spot rate from the Far East to the US West Coast reached $2,044 per FEU, representing the largest increase of 33.4 per cent since 9 October and returning to levels last seen in mid-September.
Similarly, rates to the US East Coast have risen 20.9 per cent from two weeks ago, returning to mid-September levels as well.
Carriers have implemented more blanked sailings on Transpacific routes throughout October, keeping offered capacity just below the September level.
The spread between the two US coasts has remained consistent at around $909 over the past two weeks, reflecting similar market conditions.
Notably, the Far East to US West Coast spot rate of $2,044 per FEU is now almost on par with the average long-term rate of $2,013, while the East Coast spot rate of $2,953 per FEU is close to its long-term average of $3,070.
European-bound fronthauls also experienced notable fluctuations. The average spot rate from the Far East to the Mediterranean increased 9.8 per cent over the past two weeks, while the Far East to North Europe route rose 18 per cent.
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However, slight declines of 1.4 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively were recorded compared with the previous week. The spread between these two European routes has narrowed to $391, returning to end-August levels.
This narrowing is primarily the result of a 5.7 per cent drop in Mediterranean rates since 16 September, whereas North Europe rates have increased by 3 per cent in the same period.
Despite recent gains, spot rates remain below long-term averages, with $1,976 per FEU to North Europe compared with a long-term rate of $2,168, and $2,367 per FEU to the Mediterranean compared with $3,237 long-term.
On the Transatlantic route, short-term rates have plateaued over the past week. They are down 2.6 per cent from two weeks ago and 44.6 per cent compared with the same date last year, indicating continued pressure on this trade lane.
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Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, noted that while the mid-October spike in European-bound fronthauls is positive for carriers, it is not sufficient to surpass long-term rates.
Sand said: “This plays into the hands of shippers, who may consider pushing contract negotiations into Q1 2026. A long-term market higher than the short-term market is a powerful negotiating position for shippers, as locking into a new 12-month contract at these levels would be unwise.”
On the Transpacific side, Xeneta analysts observe that average long-term rates are almost on par with spot rates, which should favour shippers under normal circumstances.
However, geopolitical tensions, the introduction of USTR port fees, China’s retaliatory port fees, and the threat of additional tariffs have created significant uncertainty.
Xeneta analysts added: “Shippers are navigating a challenging environment, and the potential for a 100 per cent tariff could further disrupt global trade flows.”
