Spot rates from the Far East to the US East Coast are closing in on the COVID-19 peak, while global schedule reliability keeps deteriorating, according to the latest Xeneta Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said average spot rates on the route have continued climbing since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in February, rising a further 25 per cent since early July and now sitting just 14 per cent shy of the COVID-19 peak recorded on 1 January 2022.
He said it is unlikely the market will exceed that record-breaking level, but added that it cannot be ruled out, and that the fact it is even being discussed shows how extraordinary the current situation is.
Rates into the US East Coast have already sailed past the Red Sea crisis peak by around $1,000 per FEU, and while the pace of growth has eased, Sand expects further upward pressure as Golden Week approaches in early October.
The picture is markedly different heading into Europe. Spot rates from the Far East to North Europe have fallen 18 per cent since early July, while Mediterranean-bound rates are down 28 per cent over the same period.
The split across the global market persists, with transatlantic rates into the US East Coast still climbing, reaching $3,000 per FEU, the highest level since April 2023.
READ: Xeneta warns shippers face 41 per cent jump in long-term rates
Sand also pointed to a deepening reliability problem running alongside the elevated rates. Global schedule reliability has now fallen for three consecutive months, dropping to just 29.4 per cent in August from a 30-month high of 39 per cent in May, meaning fewer than three in ten ships are now departing on time, down from four in ten just four months ago.
He said Asia’s typhoon peak season has clearly contributed, with on-time performance on Far East to Europe services collapsing from 47 per cent in mid-June to just 3 per cent by the end of July, while Far East to North America services fell from 38 per cent to 19 per cent over the same period.
Sand described it as a pattern seen in every major market shock: the more a shipper has to pay, the worse the service becomes.
As of 3 September 2026, average spot rates stood at $7,496 per FEU on the Far East–US West Coast route, $10,910 on Far East–US East Coast, $4,532 on Far East–North Europe, $5,073 on Far East–Mediterranean, and $2,937 on North Europe–US East Coast.
Rates on the US East Coast route now sit 305 per cent above pre-crisis levels recorded on 28 February 2026, with the West Coast up 289 per cent, North Europe up 111 per cent, the Mediterranean up 61 per cent, and North Europe–US East Coast up 95 per cent.
On reliability, the Gemini Cooperation posted the strongest August performance among alliances at 51.8 per cent, ahead of non-alliance carriers at 31.7 per cent, the Ocean Alliance at 27.7 per cent, standalone carrier MSC at 26 per cent, and the Premier Alliance at just 15.8 per cent. Xeneta’s fuller Schedule Reliability report is due to be published in the coming weeks.
For more information:
Xeneta – https://www.xeneta.com/
