The US–Iran agreement may enable a gradual return of container shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but full stabilisation of global supply chains is not expected before mid-September 2026.
According to Xeneta, even under a best-case scenario, spot rates are likely to continue rising for at least another four weeks before reaching a peak.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said: “This agreement should be greeted with realism and extreme caution. Even if the ceasefire holds, around 10 per cent of global container shipping capacity is impacted by the blockade and freight rates are spiralling across major trades. This scale of disruption and market volatility cannot be reversed overnight.”
Before the crisis, 99 container services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf, deploying around 3.2 million TEUs of nominal capacity.
Today, only 11 services remain active, representing just 74,000 TEUs, with 488 vessels reduced to 18 on regional routes and the remainder diverted across global networks.
The disruption has driven sharp rate increases across major trade lanes, including those not directly transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
READ: Xeneta warns shippers as spot rates surge 80 per cent
Far East–US West Coast rates have risen 192 per cent since late February, while Far East–US East Coast is up 158 per cent. Far East–North Europe and Far East–Mediterranean routes have also increased by 106 per cent and 77 per cent respectively.
In the past week alone, rates rose a further 29 per cent on Far East–US West Coast and 25 per cent on Far East–US East Coast.
Sand stated: “Shippers are frontloading imports ahead of bunker fuel surcharge increases in July and fears over available capacity, with many being told ships are full on trades out of Asia for weeks in advance. Shippers who manage to get their boxes on board are paying a premium to do so.”
Although bunker fuel and oil prices have fallen around 20 per cent over the past 10 days, Xeneta expects upward pressure on spot rates to persist until safe transit through the Strait is fully restored.
The US–Iran deal includes provisions addressing naval activity and non-interference obligations, but a 30-day demining window is expected before full reopening, with potential delays depending on operational complexity.
READ: Xeneta warns of further freight rate surge
Sand stated: “Spot rates will keep climbing for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open. That could be four more weeks or longer depending on how complex the de-mining operation turns out to be. Shippers should plan for a peak around the point the strait formally reopens, followed by a gradual easing.”
Xeneta outlines a three-phase recovery: initial vessel and crew extraction from the Arabian Gulf, followed by restoration of feeder and regional services, and finally the return of long-haul Asia–Europe and Asia–North America strings.
Even after normalisation, Xeneta expects a structural shift in network design, with greater reliance on transshipment and feeder models to improve resilience against future disruption.
For more information:
Xeneta – https://www.xeneta.com/
