Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly dominated by shadow fleet activity, as geopolitical tensions continue to reshape vessel movements and raise concerns across global shipping markets.
These insights were shared during the Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Implications for the Maritime Industry webinar, hosted by Lloyd’s List Intelligence on 26 March 2026.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence noted that tanker, bulk, container, and gas carrier traffic remains active, though patterns are shifting. Around 68 per cent of vessel transits remain traceable with AIS switched on, while 46 dark transits have been recorded so far in March.
Iran-linked vessels account for a significant share of activity, representing 24 per cent of transits, followed by Greece at 15 per cent and China at 10 per cent. Nearly 70 per cent of all movements are understood to have some form of Iranian nexus, ccording to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, with most traffic heading eastbound.
Recent movements, including the departure of two Abu Dhabi National Oil Company tankers and the transit of two India-flagged LPG carriers, indicate continued, albeit cautious, energy flows through the region.
READ: Insurers widen Gulf war-risk zones amid rising tensions
Lloyd’s List Intelligence also pointed to a sharp escalation in shadow fleet presence. While such vessels accounted for 12–15 per cent of transits in February, this figure has surged to more than 80 per cent in March.
At least 26 vessels have taken a diversion route around Iran’s Larak Island, a path now used by both mainstream operators and shadow fleet vessels.
Ships transiting the region face extensive scrutiny, including requirements for full documentation, ownership transparency, cargo details, and crew lists, alongside sanctions and geopolitical checks.
The impact on freight markets remains highly dependent on the duration of disruption. Even in the event of a near-term resolution, Middle East Gulf production would take months to recover, while LNG supply chains, already structurally slower, could take significantly longer to normalise.
With tankers that exited the Gulf prior to the disruption only now arriving in Asia, the full extent of supply tightness has yet to materialise.
Meanwhile, a joint UK-France maritime security initiative is reportedly under development. The mission is expected to operate independently of US forces, focusing on surveillance and defensive capabilities without direct naval deployment into the Gulf. However, approval is likely to follow only after major operations in the region conclude.
For more information:
Lloyd’s List Intelligence – https://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/
