Fresh US–Israeli strikes on Iran, coupled with Tehran’s retaliatory measures, have thrust the Red Sea security crisis back to the forefront of global shipping.
The developments are casting doubt on any meaningful resumption of Suez Canal routings in 2026 and are recalibrating expectations for capacity and freight rates.
Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said carriers are likely to prioritise safety over speed, maintaining Cape of Good Hope diversions if the security environment deteriorates further.
“The joint military action and subsequent Iranian response are set to further weaponise trade and derail plans for a large-scale Red Sea return,” he said.
Sand added: “If Houthi militia resume attacks, carriers will defer any phased return to the Red Sea, focusing on crew, vessel, and cargo safety until the situation stabilises.”
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Carriers had only recently begun reinstating selected East–West services via Suez, following months of extended Cape reroutings triggered by earlier regional attacks.
CMA CGM has already reversed plans for key Suez services, while Maersk is rerouting its ME11 and MECL loops via the Cape citing security concerns.
The current Cape routes tie up roughly 2.5 million TEU of global capacity, lengthen transit times, and absorb vessel supply.
A full Suez reopening would have released that capacity and applied downward pressure on freight rates.
Spot rates have softened since the start of 2026, but Sand noted that without a large-scale Red Sea return, the expected second-half decline in rates will be less pronounced.
He concluded: “The regional impact will bring severe port congestion and disruption, but the global effect remains limited compared with the broader strategic implications of conflict in the Red Sea.”
For more information:
Xeneta – https://www.xeneta.com/
