Transpacific holds firm while Europe fades in May

Global container freight markets are moving in opposite directions, Transpacific rates holding firm at elevated levels while European trades slide back towards pre-conflict norms.

The divergence exposes the differing resilience of carrier networks across the world’s major shipping lanes.

Xeneta data from 13 May 2026 shows Far East to US West Coast spot rates at $2,884 per FEU, up two per cent on the month and still more than 50 per cent above where they stood before the Middle East conflict escalated. The Far East to the US East Coast reached $3,974 per FEU, also up two per cent.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, attributes the Transpacific plateau in part to shippers sitting on their hands when it comes to long-term contract negotiations.

With geopolitical uncertainty making 12-month rate commitments feel risky, more cargo is being pushed onto the spot market, sustaining carrier premiums but leaving shippers exposed.

Sand said: “For every delayed contract, more containers must be moved on the spot market and carriers will charge a premium – but for shippers, the short term pain is worth it if they ultimately secure lower long term rates in the coming weeks.”

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The current equilibrium is unlikely to hold. Sand expects carriers to begin offering discounts to lock in contracted volumes ahead of peak season, gradually drawing cargo back off the spot market and softening rates, though he cautions against expecting a dramatic collapse.

“This will be gradual softening rather than a dramatic fall off a cliff edge back to pre-conflict levels, particularly ahead of the traditional peak season build-up later in the summer,” he said.

Europe tells a different story entirely. Far East to North Europe rates dropped 8 per cent month-on-month to $2,531 per FEU.

The Far East to Mediterranean fell 12 per cent to $3,451 per FEU, now within 4 per cent of pre-crisis levels, effectively erasing the conflict premium on those trades.

Sand said: “The carrier workarounds on these corridors, the land bridges, the rerouting, the new service networks built around the disrupted areas, are now functioning well enough that the market has largely absorbed the crisis as underlying overcapacity reasserts itself.”

Capacity movements reinforce the trend. Far East to North Europe and Far East to Mediterranean both saw offered capacity contracts by 5 per cent in the week of 11 May, carriers pulling back supply as rates soften.

North Europe to the US East Coast bucked that trend, with capacity up 5.9 per cent and rates rising 13 per cent to $2,391 per FEU.

In April, the Strait of Hormuz disruption drove container freight rates sharply higher across major East–West trades, spreading delays and cost pressures throughout global shipping.