Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, has warned that Middle East war disruption is now spreading into the long-term freight contract market.
Average long-term rates from the Far East to the US West Coast and US East Coast are up 41 per cent and 40 per cent respectively since the end of February.
Long-term rates have also risen 41 per cent to North Europe and a smaller, though still significant, 17 per cent to the Mediterranean.
Sand said: “This is the fire spreading from the short-term market where we have seen massive, triple digit rate increases. The disruption caused by war in the Middle East is becoming a deepset and structural problem that will not go away any time soon, so carriers are in an extremely powerful position to call the shots across both long term and short term markets.”
He pointed to the shifting balance between spot and contract pricing to illustrate carriers’ negotiating power. Spot rates on the Transpacific trade to the US West Coast sat below long-term rates prior to the crisis at the end of February; they now sit $4,103 per FEU higher, a spread Sand said gives carriers confidence to keep pushing the long-term market higher.
Sand said: “This is the longer financial tail of supply chain shocks. A spot rate is for the ‘here and now’, but signing a long-term contract means accepting these elevated costs for at least the coming quarter.”
READ: Xeneta sees freight rate peak amid Hormuz disruption
Sand cautioned shippers against committing to lengthy contracts while the market remains elevated: “Shippers should not go out into a rising market like this and lock themselves into a one-year deal. This is a market for contracts with a shorter tenure, securing space for the coming quarter, but with an adjustment mechanism if/when the short-term market turns.”
Xeneta data as of 12 August 2026 puts average spot rates at $6,965 per FEU from the Far East to the US West Coast, $10,249 to the US East Coast, $4,909 to North Europe, $5,846 to the Mediterranean, and $2,741 from North Europe to the US East Coast.
Since the end of February, spot rates have climbed 271 per cent on the Far East–US West Coast route and 287 per cent to the US East Coast, with rises of 121 per cent to North Europe, 76 per cent to the Mediterranean and 86 per cent from North Europe to the US East Coast.
Long-term rates have moved from $2,028 to $2,854 per FEU on the Far East–US West Coast route and from $3,091 to $4,321 per FEU to the US East Coast over the same period, with the Far East–North Europe long-term rate rising from $1,913 to $2,690 per FEU.
For more information:
Xeneta – https://www.xeneta.com/
